France, the land of revolutions, has an eruptive tradition. And since 2017 it has had a disruptive president! On the evening of June 9, 2024, the solitary decision of President Macron to dissolve the National Assembly was a thunderbolt in an already agitated country. He justified his decision by saying that he could „not stand idly by and do nothing“ facing the victory of the National Rally led by the young Jordan Bardella, a party classified as far right.
How can France, one of the pillars of the Union, the second economic power in Europe, become a factor of instability and even risk a form of relegation a few weeks before the Olympic Games in Paris and while the European institutions are redistributing key positions? Will it be able to pay its debt with the candidates? promises of new spending? Will it maintain its support for Ukraine? Will it continue to be a driving force in Europe?
Speedy decisions
The French political crisis is old. Rarely has a president been more hated? Too vertical, too intelligent, too rich, too arrogant. Since 2022, the absence of an absolute majority for the president‘s party has made government action very difficult. A dissolution was predictable in the coming fall. The modern Bonaparte had won the 2017 elections in a hussar fashion by imposing the central bloc and shaking up the traditional bipartisan political system (PS/Les Républicains); at the same time, he committed to reducing the constant movement of conquest of the electorate by Marine Le Pen‘s party (RN). He failed. Adept at speed and disruptive strategies, he clearly sought to once again surprise all his opponents with a dissolution and a lightning campaign (just three weeks!).
National Rally President Jordan Bardella.
A crisis, yes, but not a cataclysm
The gamble had effects not anticipated by the president: his words became inaudible and a New Popular Front of the Left was formed (NFP). If we can say he managed to give „the people a voice“ with the lowest abstention rate in forty years, he is now faced with the confrontation of two radical left and right blocs and the reduction of his central bloc. The mainstream Right, heir to Gaullism (LR), is dislocated while the National Rally seems very solidly established. However, after coming in third in the second round of elections on July 7, the National Rally will fall short of the government (143 seats) without an absolute majority. The Left is in the lead but divided (approx. 182 seats), the Macronian central bloc maintains a stronger position than expected (168 seats). A Republican coalition government is being prepared. A political crisis for sure, but not a cataclysm. And no financial crisis either; indeed, on Tuesday, July 2, investors largely responded to the call to buy 10.5 billion Euros of national debt. The country continues to function.
What‘s next?
In 2027, the boxer and theater-loving president Emmanuel Macron will not be able to run again. He promises not to resign before then. He surely hopes to wear down the National Rally and the NFP by letting them fight each other to better convince the French to come back to the reason of the Center. Our emulator of Machiavelli will first have to regain their trust! But is he capable of taming his narcissism?
