Since the July 2024 election, France‘s situation has worsened. Between presidential stubbornness and parliamentary impasse, France seems to be experiencing an unprecedented political crisis since the events of May 1968 and even since the beginning of the Fifth Republic in 1958, when it was in the midst of the Algerian War!
Emmanuel Macron‘s Jupiterian presidency stems from an interpretation of his functions that General de Gaulle favored by having the head of state elected by universal suffrage and giving him a position of strength relative to parliament. But the 1958 Constitution is that of a parliamentary regime where the prime minister and his government depend on the support of the National Assembly. What happens when the presidential party does not have the majority? We get what‘s known as cohabitation in national leadership (Mitterrand/Chirac, 1986-1988; Chirac/Jospin, 1997-2002). A situation marked by tensions between the president and the prime minister. Emmanuel Macron finds himself without a majority, and his party is weakened. Nevertheless, he continues to employ various strategies to push through his agenda. Despite expectations that he would appoint a prime minister from the left-wing political group with the most seats in the Assembly, Macron declined to do so, considering that she would not obtain a majority in parliament. Similarly, he excluded the National Rally from any governmental collaboration. His monarchical attitude, which faced heavy criticism during the Yellow Vest protests and the contentious pension reform, now seems increasingly unsustainable.
The failure of the central block
In 2017, scorning the political practices of what he called the Old World, Emmanuel Macron wanted to impose his “central block” against the traditional left and right. He thought he could play at another way of doing politics. Today, he reached Francois Hollande‘s unpopularity record in 2017 with only 22 percent of favorable opinions among the French population. The unity of the left led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is fragile but is holding up against him. The influence of Marine Le Pen‘s party is growing despite legal proceedings that threaten her political future. The National Rally is now the arbiter of French political life! This is a challenge that extends across Europe: the rise of political parties classified as far-right is evident throughout the continent. Examples from Italy, Hungary, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany highlight the inability of traditional parties to entirely exclude these forces from the political landscape. The very austere social democrat Olaf Scholz, who is the antithesis of Emmanuel Macron, was unable to guarantee the survival of the SPD/FDP/Green coalition and will have to face an election in February 2025 with a very uncertain outcome.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
Bonaparte hindered
Emmanuel Macron appointed Prime Minister Michel Barnier, a member of the right-wing party Les Républicains and, at seventy-three, a perfect representative of the Old World. A total paradox where the party with the fewest elected representatives ends up leading a government composed of Macronians, centrists, one former socialist, and republicans. No political party is willing to compromise itself by forming alliances that could jeopardize upcoming elections, especially the presidential election in 2027. Michel Barnier, known for his exceptional negotiating skills, found himself paralyzed by partisan maneuvers. Ultimately, his attempt to push through the country‘s next budget led to a no-confidence vote initiated by a coalition of left-wing parties, with support from the National Rally. After just three months as Prime Minister, Barnier was forced to resign, having warned prior to the vote that France would be “plunged into the unknown.” The president, unable to dissolve the National Assembly before June 2025, now finds himself in a form of impotence. Reduced since last summer to a role focused on representation and international relations, Emmanuel Macron is once again under pressure to swiftly appoint a successor to Mr. Barnier, while calls for his own resignation intensify among his opponents. Macron-Jupiter increasingly resembles Prometheus chained to his rock!
President of France Emmanuel Macron.
